Kenya Equities Market Update – 31st October 2025

Monthly Market Overview

During October 2025, the Kenya equities market maintained a strong upward momentum, reflecting improving investor confidence and positive corporate earnings across key sectors. The NSE 25, NSE 10, NASI, and NSE 20 gained by 8.1%, 7.1%, 6.5%, and 4.8%, respectively.

This performance was primarily driven by gains among large-cap stocks, including NCBA (+27.5%), Equity Group (+14.2%), and EABL (+9.8%), supported by strong earnings announcements and stable macroeconomic indicators. However, Co-operative Bank recorded a slight decline of 1.4%, partially offsetting the overall market gains.

The Banking Sector Index declined by 8.1%, closing at 152.1, down from 165.6 at the start of the month, mainly due to profit-taking on select banking counters. Despite this, the sector remains supported by robust fundamentals, particularly from Equity (+14.2%), NCBA (+27.5%), and KCB (+8.4%).

Equities turnover fell sharply by 51.1% to USD 88.0 million, compared to USD 180.0 million in September 2025, reflecting reduced trading activity following heavy participation in the previous month.
Foreign investors maintained a net selling position of USD 12.4 million, an improvement from the USD 38.4 million outflow recorded in September 2025.

Weekly Market Performance

During the week ending 31st October 2025, the equities market continued its upward trajectory across all major indices:

• NSE 10: +5.8%
• NASI: +4.7%
• NSE 25: +4.3%
• NSE 20: +2.5%

This sustained rally pushed the year-to-date (YTD) performance to impressive gains of 51.4% (NSE 20), 50.2% (NASI), 44.6% (NSE 25), and 43.9% (NSE 10).

The week’s performance was primarily supported by gains in Equity Group (+11.3%), Safaricom (+6.9%), and KCB (+5.6%), following strong Q3 earnings reports and improved market sentiment. However, the overall market gains were partially weighed down by declines in NCBA (-3.3%), Stanbic (-1.1%), and BAT (-0.1%).

The Banking Sector Index declined by 3.7%, closing at 152.1 from 157.9 the previous week, mainly due to mild profit-taking in NCBA and Stanbic, even as Equity and KCB outperformed.

Equities turnover dropped 37.9% to USD 20.0 million, down from USD 32.2 million the prior week, bringing the YTD turnover to USD 872.1 million.
Foreign investors remained net sellers for the fourth consecutive week, offloading USD 1.3 million, following the USD 12.7 million outflow recorded the previous week. This brings the YTD foreign net selling position to USD 69.6 million, compared to USD 2.3 million in 2024.

Earnings Highlights

1. Equity Group Holdings Q3’2025 Financial Results

Equity Group posted a strong third-quarter performance, underscoring its position as the leading Tier I bank in profitability and asset growth.

Key Highlights:

• Earnings Growth: Core earnings per share rose by 32.7% to Kshs 13.8, up from Kshs 10.4 in Q3’2024, driven by a 10.3% growth in total operating income to Kshs 156.3 billion, alongside a marginal 0.03% decline in total operating expenses to Kshs 90.7 billion.
• Asset Quality: The Gross NPL ratio improved to 13.6% from 14.4% in Q3’2024, reflecting better credit management and a 9.2% increase in gross loans to Kshs 951.7 billion.
• Balance Sheet Expansion: Total assets rose by 6.7% to Kshs 1.82 trillion, driven by a 19.9% rise in government securities to Kshs 310.4 billion and a 7.5% increase in net loans and advances to Kshs 859.8 billion.
• Customer Lending: Net loans and advances grew 7.5%, supporting strong income growth.

Overall, Equity Group demonstrated sustained profitability, prudent cost management, and improved credit quality, reinforcing its leadership in the regional banking landscape.

2. KenGen FY’2025 Financial Performance

Kenya Electricity Generating Company (KenGen) reported a 54.2% increase in net profit to Kshs 10.5 billion, up from Kshs 6.8 billion in FY’2024, supported by efficiency gains and cost optimization initiatives.

Key Highlights:

• Operating Efficiency: Operating expenses dropped by 10.6% to Kshs 35.1 billion, driving a 42.6% rise in operating profit to Kshs 13.6 billion.
• Revenue & Costs: Net revenue declined by 3.8% to Kshs 46.5 billion, as a 20.5% increase in fuel and water costs offset efficiency gains.
• Finance Costs: Fell 19.7% to Kshs 2.3 billion, reflecting better debt management and currency stability.
• Balance Sheet Growth: Total assets rose 2.9% to Kshs 505.6 billion, driven by expansion in both non-current and current assets.
• Earnings & Dividend: EPS increased 54.4% to Kshs 1.6, while the Board proposed a final dividend of Kshs 0.9 per share, up 38.5% year-on-year.

KenGen’s performance highlights the impact of cost discipline, operational efficiency, and currency stabilization, positioning it for steady profitability amid a transitioning energy landscape.

Market Outlook

The equities market ended October on a strong note, buoyed by robust Q3 corporate earnings, stable macroeconomic indicators, and steady investor confidence. Despite sustained foreign outflows, local institutional investors continued to provide market support, cushioning prices.

With inflation remaining contained at 4.6%, the recent CBK rate cut to 9.25% is expected to sustain risk appetite in the equities market. Going into November, focus will remain on banking sector results, earnings guidance, and monetary policy developments, which will shape near-term sentiment and portfolio flows.

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